Abstract:

    The leading modes of month-to-month variability in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are examined by comparing a 100-year run of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model with the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses of observations. The model simulation is a control experiment in which the sea surface temperatures are fixed to the climatological annual cycle with out any interannual variability. The leading modes describe nearly zonally symmetric, or annular, expansion and contraction of the polar vortex as the mid-latitude jet shifts equatorward and poleward. This fluctuation is strongest during the winter months. The structure and amplitude of the simulated mode is very similar to that derived from observations, indicating that the mode arises from the internal dynamics of the atmosphere.
    Dynamical diagnosis of both observations and simulation indicates that variations in the zonal flow are forced by eddy fluxes in the free troposphere, while the Coriolis acceleration associated with the mean meridional circulation maintains the surface wind anomalies against friction. High frequency transients contribute most to the total eddy forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, stationary waves provide most of the eddy momentum fluxes, although high frequency transients also make an important contribution. The behavior of the stationary waves can be partly explained with index of refraction arguments. When the tropospheric westerlies are dis placed poleward, Rossby waves are refracted equatorward, inducing poleward momentum fluxes and reinforcing the high latitude westerlies. Planetary Rossby wave refraction can also explain why the stratospheric polar vortex is stronger when the tropospheric westerlies are displaced poleward. When planetary wave activity is refracted equatorward, it is less likely to propagate into the stratosphere and disturb the polar vortex.

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